Climate change questions

Global Warming Alarm Based on Faulty Forecasting Procedures: Comments on the United States Department of State's U.S. Climate Action Report 2010

Scott Armstrong, Kesten Green & Willie Soon
University of Pennsylvania Working Paper, May 2010

"The alarming forecasts of dangerous manmade global warming are not the product of proper scientific evidence-based forecasting methods. Furthermore, there have been no validation studies to support a belief that the forecasting procedures used were nevertheless appropriate for the situation. As a consequence, alarming forecasts of global warming are merely the opinions of some scientists and, for a situation as complicated and poorly understood as global climate, such opinions are unlikely to be as accurate as forecasts that global temperatures will remain much the same as they have been over recent years. Using proper forecasting procedures we predict that the global warming alarm will prove false and that government actions in response to the alarm will be shown to have been harmful."

Exploring for new business vs. expanding real customers

Note this for future business organizations:

Balancing Exploration and Exploitation Through Structural Design: The Isolation of Subgroups and Organizational Learning

Christina Fang, Jeho Lee & Melissa Schilling
Organization Science, May-June 2010, Pages 625-642

Abstract:
The classic trade-off between exploration and exploitation in organizational learning has attracted vigorous attention by researchers over the last two decades. Despite this attention, however, the question of how firms can better maintain the balance of exploration and exploitation remains unresolved. Drawing on a wide range of research on population and organization structure, we argue that an organization divided into semi-isolated subgroups may help strike this balance. We simulate such an organization, systematically varying the interaction pattern between individuals to explore how the degree of subgroup isolation and intergroup connectivity influences organizational learning. We also test this model with a range of contingency variables highlighted in the management research. We find that moderate levels of cross-group linking lead to the highest equilibrium performance by enabling superior ideas to diffuse across groups without reducing organizational diversity too quickly. This finding is remarkably resilient to a wide range of variance in factors such as problem complexity, environmental dynamism, and personnel turnover.

The Middle East is in trouble

Obviously. There's a couple articles out there that seem to point to an increase in that trouble as a result of persistently low levels of engagement on the part of the current administration. It seems the lack of superpower oversight results in uncoordinated efforts by lesser powers. Maybe not such a bad thing but it certainly is a change from the norm.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/lexington/2010/06/barack_obama_israel_iran_and_turkey

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/09/world/middleeast/09turkey.html

New music

The NYT gives a concert review, highlighting some new pieces. I'm looking forward to checking them out.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/09/arts/music/09league.html

Politics and health

Social Welfare Expenditures in the United States and the Nordic Countries: 1900-2003

Price Fishback
NBER Working Paper, May 2010

Abstract:
The extent of social expenditures in the U.S. and the Nordic Countries is compared in the early 1900s and again in the early 2000s. The common view that America spends much less on social welfare than the Nordic countries does not survive closer inspection when we consider the differences in the structures of social expenditures. The standard comparison examines gross social expenditures. After adjustments for direct and indirect taxes paid, the net social expenditures in the Nordic countries are much closer to American levels. Inclusion of mandatory and private social expenditures raises the American share of GDP devoted to social expenditures to rank among the middle of the Nordic countries. Per capita net public social expenditures in the U.S. rank behind only Sweden. Add in the private spending, and per capita spending in the U.S. is higher than in all of the Nordic countries. Finally, I document the enormous diversity across time and place in public social expenditures in the U.S. in the early 1900s and circa 1990.

Politics and health in eight European countries: A comparative study of mortality decline under social democracies and right-wing governments

Jose Tapia Granados
Social Science & Medicine, forthcoming

Abstract:
Recent publications have argued that the welfare state is an important determinant of population health, and that social democracy in office and higher levels of health expenditure promote health progress. In the period 1950-2000, Greece, Portugal, and Spain were the poorest market economies in Europe, with a fragmented system of welfare provision, and many years of military or authoritarian right-wing regimes. In contrast, the five Nordic countries were the richest market economies in Europe, governed mostly by center or center-left coalitions often including the social democratic parties, and having a generous and universal welfare state. In spite of the socioeconomic and political differences, and a large gap between the five Nordic and the three southern nations in levels of health in 1950, population health indicators converged among these eight countries. Mean decadal gains in longevity of Portugal and Spain between 1950 and 2000 were almost three times greater than gains in Denmark, and about twice as great as those in Iceland, Norway and Sweden during the same period. All this raises serious doubts regarding the hypothesis that the political regime, the political party in office, the level of health care spending, and the type of welfare state exert major influences on population health. Either these factors are not major determinants of mortality decline, or their impact on population health in Nordic countries was more than offset by other health-promoting factors present in Southern Europe.